Don Valley East, Ontario without SV
The Problem
The numbers, in this page, are from the 2011 elections. In 2015, the numbers were better, but this year’s election (2021) will be a repeat of the divided progressive vote as in 2011 if we do not vote strategically for one progressive candidate in each riding. The numbers are coming from the federal election in Canada in 2011, in which 5 million votes in 57 electoral districts were wasted due to the progressive vote divide. In these districts, the combined progressive vote (CPV) would have been greater than that of the total support for the Conservative government. Five million Canadians went to the poll and cast a ballot to make a statement and ended up changing nothing.
See the math in action in one of those districts:
In Don Valley East, Ontario, the combined progressive vote (CPV) represented 63% of the total ballots cast, but the Conservatives won the seat.
The Solution
We are trying to pool progressive voters across Canada in a progressive voting bloc (PVB) to elect one candidate in each district. Doing so will increase the number of seats won by progressive parties (Liberals, NDP and Green) while keeping each party’s total number of votes unchanged. Progressive voters in Don Valley East should have voted Liberal according to the methodology we use:
Don Valley East, Ontario with SV
With strategic voting (SV), the Liberal candidate would have won the seat in Don Valley.
- 572,095 votes in total
- 1 seat in the house
- only 31,890 votes were effective
- = 94% votes wasted
- With Strategic Voting:
2 seats instead of 1
Green Party Percentage of Effective Votes
Double number of seats
- 2,783,076 votes in total
- 34 seats in the house
- only 571,379 votes were effective
- = 79% votes wasted
- With Strategic Voting:
75 seats instead of 34
Liberal Percentage of Effective Votes
More than double the seats
- 4,512,411 votes in total
- 103 seats in the house
- only 2,378,832 votes were effective
- = 47% votes wasted
- With Strategic Voting:
125 seats instead of 103 and an NDP-led minority government
NDP Percentage of Effective Votes
NDP-led minority government
Why is it important?
Political leaders tend to believe in miracles.
For the last 10 years, the multiple leaders that led both the Liberals and the NDP in the 2006, 2008 and 2011 federal elections could not confront the fact that they need to work together to win the election for the Canadian progressive majority. Instead, they hoped they could survive the election to fight another day in 4 years.
This is no longer working for the electorate and we need them to realize it.
The Conservative Party wins elections by using the progressive split in their favour, usually with less than 37% of the popular vote. This has left the remaining 63% of Canadians – progressives – out of the government for 3 consecutive elections.
Your vote should not be just a statement – your vote should make a difference.
What can I do?
Don’t wait for poll numbers to change in favour of your first party choice.
Election surprises can happen, such as in the Alberta provincial election this year, but no one should count on miracles. The best plan that we have will not only work in the 2015 Federal Election, but it would have worked last three elections.
Strategic voting.
Vote strategically in your district to counter the progressive split that has allowed the Conservatives to govern for the last 10 years. By supporting the progressive candidate we recommend in your district, you can change the outcome.
Together, we can maximize the number of seats that all three progressive parties can receive while keeping their share of the vote unchanged.
63130 Districts
Using the 2011 federal election results, we calculated the Combined Progressive Vote (CPV) – the combined vote of the support for the Liberal Party, the NDP and the Green Party.
Calculating the CPV across all 308 districts, plus the newly added 30 districts, we found 63 Districts that would have voted a progressive MP if progressive supporters voted for one candidate instead of 3.
Further we identified another 67 districts (using available poll data) where the projected combined progressive vote is greater than that of the conservatives.
With Strategic Voting, the Liberal Party seats will more than triple from 34 to 114, the Green party seats will double from 1 to 2 and the NDP will lead a progressive coalition government with 153 seats instead of a majority Conservative government.
Get Involved
This is a grassroots initiative, so you are the main force driving it to success. Here’s what you can do to help:
Commit to vote strategically in your district.
Tell your friends about strategic voting.
Like our page on Facebook to send the message to the 3 federal progressive party leaders that you support this initiative and that you expect them to endorse it.